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    IS THE BLACK SEA RISK PREMIUM AT AN ADEQUATE LEVEL?

    20 Jan 2023
    Since the Black Sea corridor renewal was agreed last November, the massive risk premium added to world prices during 2022 has totally vanished. For instance, MATIF wheat lost €150, OSR €300 and LIFFE £125 since the May 2022 highs.  Traders now consider that war, agriculture, and trade can easily be combined. We believe this is premature and we will review here why the risk premium could rebound, probably as soon as February/March.

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