PRICE REBOUND: A CHANGE OF TREND OR JUST A POSITIVE MOMENTUM?
November 6, 2025
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3 November 2025 11:13
LIFFE prices are following the world price rebound, led by oilseeds.
Grain prices are only followers for now as there are still plenty of supplies all around the top exporting countries. Crude prices went up 10% in October and the GBP went down around 4% against both the dollar and the euro (supportive for our domestic prices as it makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive).
We also continue to have historically high basis levels in the UK as farmers remain slow sellers and the UK wheat S&D is one of the tighter in recent years.
Nevertheless, global grain prices remain bearish and only a new crop production risk would change the trend. For now, any upside will probably be capped.
We will thus be reactive to sell more volumes, especially on old crop.
21 October 2025 13:33
Basis levels continue to do the heavy lifting, cushioning UK feed wheat prices against global weakness. From -£7 in June to now +£10 seen in the Midlands area, reflects firm feed demand, limited farm selling, and tight local availability.
However, these basis levels aren’t evident across all regions: please speak with your ODA consultant to assess your local position.
Strong, localised basis support can fade quickly later in the season.
6 October 2025 8:19
Trump is reportedly considering a $10bn bailout for U.S. farmers hit by his own tariffs, funded from tariff revenues. With soybean exports running 19% below USDA targets and trade talks stalled, the move looks designed to buy time and political goodwill ahead of the October 22 Xi–Trump meeting.
For now, China clearly holds the upper hand, having filled its needs from South America and built comfortable stocks. A deal is becoming increasingly urgent and would certainly boost global prices if struck.
25 September 2025 10:39
Argentina suspended grain export taxes on Monday to accelerate sales and bring in U.S. dollars.
The suspension was to stay in place to the end of Oct or until exports reach $7 bill, whichever comes first. The move, however, triggered a surge in selling, and within just two days exports hit the agreed cap.
Highlighting the volatility of Argentine policy, capable of flooding the market one day and tightening it the next. The rush of sales adds short-term supply pressure, but with taxes back, corn and soy exports are likely to slow. Fuelling volatility but offering underlying price support.
24 September 2025 10:36
It is too soon for a real price reaction but some of the key world producers are facing very dry conditions. If it does not rain in the coming weeks, then a risk premium could develop. We will keep you informed as it is becoming a key watch point.
19 August 2025 19:49
Palm oil prices have risen by nearly 15% in recent weeks as stocks stand at a 19-year low. Exporters (Malaysia & Indonesia) are thus considering an increase of the export tax to limit exports. Palm oil being the world number one veg oil, this is beneficial to rapeseed markets.
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| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov 25 | 164.00s | 164.00 | s | -1.95 | 164.25 | 164.25 | 163.85 | 49 | 51 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jan 26 | 168.90s | 168.90 | s | -1.60 | 0.00 | 168.90 | 168.90 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Mar 26 | 173.80s | 173.80 | s | -1.25 | 0.00 | 173.80 | 173.80 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | May 26 | 179.00 | 179.00 | +0.35 | 179.15 | 179.45 | 178.85 | 37 | 6977 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jul 26 | 183.25s | 183.25 | s | -0.25 | 0.00 | 183.25 | 183.25 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov 26 | 179.25s | 179.25 | s | -0.25 | 179.05 | 179.40 | 179.00 | 27 | 2842 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jan 27 | 182.25s | 182.25 | s | -0.25 | 0.00 | 182.25 | 182.25 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Mar 27 | 185.25s | 185.25 | s | -0.25 | 0.00 | 185.25 | 185.25 | ICE | 10/11/2025 | 13:57:23 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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