WHAT IMPACT FOR AG MARKETS IF TRUMP ATTACKS IRAN?
January 29, 2026
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22 January 2026 18:44
UK agricultural tractor registrations for full-year 2025 fell 14.2% to 8,791 units when compared to 2024. The December 2025 monthly total was 541 units, a fall of 31.6% from December 2024, and 25% down on the average for December over the last five years.
The average horsepower of tractors sold in 2025 fell, for the first time since 2021. The latest year had an average power of 173hp, from just under 180hp in calendar 2024. The number of tractors over 240hp registered was down by nearly a third from the prior year, reflecting the challenging financial position of arable farmers, who are the main buyers of these larger machines.
16 January 2026 10:53
China and Canada have reached a tariff-quota agreement that significantly reduces trade barriers on Canadian canola. Under the new deal, Chinese import duties on Canadian canola seed will be lowered to 15% by March 2026, replacing the 76% provisional rates previously in place. In addition, the 100% tariff on canola oil and meal, along with several other Canadian agricultural exports, will be eliminated from March through at least year-end under the agreement.
This development reopens Chinese market access for Canadian canola and related products and is supportive for MATIF rapeseed market.
7 January 2026 10:57
Wheat harvest is coming to an end in Argentina. Production will reach 27 to 28MT, an all time record! FYI, current record yield is (only) 4.2T/HA.
However, there are many talks about major protein dilution issues. The average protein level is significantly below 10%, sometimes below 9%. We consider that only 30% of the crop could meet with milling wheat standards. This would leave very little milling wheat to be exported and countries like Brazil, who usually import 5MT from Argentina, could have to look for alternatives.
This situation could become supportive for the world wheat market, especially for high quality wheat. As a result Kansas wheat is strongly up since the beginning of January.
27 November 2025 7:31
The budget revealed less taxes than expected and markets seem to have appreciated that. In a few words:
• The Budget increased tax by GBP26bn in 2029/30, some GBP22bn below the targets
• The market appears happy with increased headroom, while the boost to child benefit reduces immediate political risk
• Still, with a backloaded and increasing tax burden, many of the UK's underlying issues remain unresolved.
The Sterling is up 0.6% since yesterday morning, with an equivalent negative impact on LIFFE prices.
6 November 2025 12:36
There will be no port and crush strike in Argentina.
Soybean meal prices are down 2% this morning on the news, after an impressive 20% rebound in recent weeks.
3 November 2025 11:13
LIFFE prices are following the world price rebound, led by oilseeds.
Grain prices are only followers for now as there are still plenty of supplies all around the top exporting countries. Crude prices went up 10% in October and the GBP went down around 4% against both the dollar and the euro (supportive for our domestic prices as it makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive).
We also continue to have historically high basis levels in the UK as farmers remain slow sellers and the UK wheat S&D is one of the tighter in recent years.
Nevertheless, global grain prices remain bearish and only a new crop production risk would change the trend. For now, any upside will probably be capped.
We will thus be reactive to sell more volumes, especially on old crop.
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| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | London Wheat | Mar 26 | 164.25s | 164.25 | s | -0.30 | 0.00 | 164.25 | 164.25 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | London Wheat | May 26 | 167.75 | 167.75 | -0.40 | 168.00 | 168.05 | 167.75 | 88 | 6676 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | London Wheat | Jul 26 | 172.00s | 172.00 | s | -0.35 | 0.00 | 172.00 | 172.00 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Nov 26 | 171.50 | 171.50 | -0.65 | 172.00 | 172.00 | 171.50 | 30 | 4556 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | London Wheat | Jan 27 | 175.00s | 175.00 | s | -0.35 | 0.00 | 175.00 | 175.00 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Mar 27 | 177.85s | 177.85 | s | -0.35 | 0.00 | 177.85 | 177.85 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | London Wheat | May 27 | 180.70s | 180.70 | s | -0.35 | 180.50 | 181.00 | 180.50 | 25 | 243 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | London Wheat | Jul 27 | 183.55s | 183.55 | s | -0.35 | 0.00 | 183.55 | 183.55 | ICE | 03/02/2026 | 16:29:35 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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