BLACK SEA WAR: IS A NEW 2022 SCENARIO POSSIBLE?
July 16, 2026
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30 August 2026 17:28
Defra has released their latest wheat yield estimate for the UK.
Wheat yield is now estimated at only 6.8T/HA, some 1.1T/HA below the 10-year average of 7.9T/HA.
The UK production could thus fall to 11MT only as the area was also decreased by 70KHA. This is an historically very poor crop.
In that context, farmers are reluctant sellers and they believe, like us, that prices can move higher to mitigate poor yields. As a result, basis are moving up despite increasing LIFFE futures prices. These are very favorable conditions for your EX-FARM values. Power is on the seller's side!
28 August 2026 14:36
The situation is indeed far worse than in 2022. Russian wheat exports in August will not even reach 2MT, when they usually range between 4MT and 5MT. The same is happening in Ukraine, where Ag. exports are down at least 70% in August.
However, prices are still not reacting in the same way as in 2022. Why? Because international buyers have not yet jumped into the market. However, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and many other countries across Asia, the Middle East and Africa, which usually buy their wheat from the Black Sea, will soon have to find other origins. European ports will attract massive demand if the Black Sea situation is not resolved in the coming days.
24 July 2026 14:27
This news follows high-level discussions involving President Zelensky to secure grain shipments out of Ukraine and Russia.
The first and preferred option would require ship owners or flag states to notify both Ukrainian and Russian authorities before calling at ports, with participating vessels protected from attack.
The arrangement is expected to involve only a limited number of Asian, Arabic, African and Middle East countries.
A second proposal, involving a temporary two to three day ceasefire window for port access, is viewed as less practical and unlikely to be adopted.
No agreement has been reached, and negotiations are ongoing but the markets have reacted very strongly down on the initial news. MATIF (Dec’26) Wheat down €12, LIFFE (Nov’26) Feed Wheat down £9/t.
17 July 2026 8:07
Last night Ukraine targeted 12 new ships in the Black Sea, of which 9 were dry cargoes. Operations took place south of the Strait of Kerch and close to the largest Russian port of Novorossiïsk. In total, 159 vessels were hit in 12 days.
In retaliation, Odesa was massively bombed again. Russia hit Ukrainian ports 23 times in July, bringing shipments to a halt. A demand shift from the Black Sea to Europe may be expected.
Markets seem to be considering that the Black Sea risk premium is now priced. We believe there could be some further escalation in the coming weeks.
10 July 2026 17:21
MATIF prices are up 4% today as Ukraine has struck 36 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov that connects with the Black Sea. Traders said there was talk in the market about a possible closure by Russia of Azov to all shipping. This would take 30% of the total Russian wheat export capacities down.
17 June 2026 9:02
The world market is coming back to normal and prices are back to where they were before the war. It is taking more time, as always, on the real cash price you are being offered. Diesel and fertiliser prices remain far higher for now. But they will follow the trend. So, farmers should not be in a hurry to secure on current costs.
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| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | London Wheat | Nov 26 | 215.75s | 215.75 | s | 0.00 | 215.75 | 215.75 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Jan 27 | 217.25s | 217.25 | s | 0.00 | 217.25 | 217.25 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Mar 27 | 219.25s | 219.25 | s | 0.00 | 219.25 | 219.25 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | London Wheat | May 27 | 221.25s | 221.25 | s | 0.00 | 221.25 | 221.25 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Jul 27 | 223.25s | 223.25 | s | 0.00 | 223.25 | 223.25 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Nov 27 | 208.00s | 208.00 | s | 0.00 | 208.00 | 208.00 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Jan 28 | 210.00s | 210.00 | s | 0.00 | 210.00 | 210.00 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | London Wheat | Mar 28 | 212.00s | 212.00 | s | 0.00 | 212.00 | 212.00 | ICE | 31/08/2026 | 17:59:25 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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