USDA Shocks With Record US Corn Crop

14 Aug 2025
Higher US yields were largely anticipated, but the USDA delivered a real surprise by combining them with a sharp increase in planted area (+2.5 M acres) and a record yield estimate of 188.8 bu/acre. This takes projected production to 425 Mt, some 35 Mt above the previous record set in 2023. Even though world soybean and wheat stocks came in lower, it will take a strong catalyst to trigger a price rebound.

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